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| What are this week’s market risks or opportunities? |
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| Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has spent recent quarters beating estimates and watching the stock fall anyway. |
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| It slid more than 3% in the week before Wednesday's report, as investors asked whether the AI spending behind those numbers could hold. Barclays puts that spending at $1.5 trillion since 2023. |
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| This time was different. |
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| Revenue came in at $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago, earnings doubled to $2.22 a share, and gross margin improved. |
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| The outlook did the work: Jensen Huang put revenue growth for fiscal 2028 at around 70%, which answered the critical sustainability question directly, and a beat was finally enough. |
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| Nvidia is one of the heaviest weights in the S&P 500, so an index fund holds that question either way, and the same question now sits over every name in the AI trade. |
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| Which trades should I consider? |
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| For three years the AI chip trade moved as one. |
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| Nvidia returned +356.5%, AMD +370.3%, Broadcom +332.8%. Over the past twelve months: Nvidia +15.6% and Broadcom +19.3%, while AMD is +187.8%. |
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| Owning the theme is no longer the same as owning the winner. |
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| AMD (NASDAQ: AMD): earnings forecast to grow 196.4% this year, with the average analyst target 34.2% above the price against 24.1% for Nvidia. Its +187.8% twelve-month return is more than ten times Nvidia's +15.6%. |
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| Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO): earnings forecast to grow 152.7% this year, with the average target 16.9% above the price, less room than Nvidia. It pays a 0.6% dividend. |
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| Two of our ProPicks AI strategies, Tech Titans and Beat the S&P, have held AMD since June 1. While the stock is down 5.7% since then, both still hold it. |
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| September's list will show whether that lasts. Those growth rates are forecasts, and AMD trades at 111.4 times its earnings where Nvidia trades at 46.8. |
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| Should I consider this trade? |
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| The same split runs below the mega-caps. |
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| Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) designs the custom chips and networking silicon that data centers are built on, a layer beneath the names everyone watches. |
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| Our ProPicks AI Tech Titans strategy has held it since June 2026. The stock had run around +30% since August 1, into Thursday's earnings. |
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| By Wednesday's close our own data no longer agreed with itself. Health scores read great on every indicator, technicals read Strong Buy and analyst sentiment read Strong Buy. |
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| But the average price target of $269.28 sat only 9.9% above the price, the smallest upside of any name in this email. |
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| Our fair value model put the fair price at $178.47, or 27.2% below where the stock traded. |
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| Four signals said the company was in good shape and the trend intact. The fifth - fair value - said the price had got ahead of the business. |
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| Thursday's earning numbers impacted those signals. Which matters more still depends on your timeframe. |
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| Data correct to 26.08.2026. |
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