Asia Market Movers: Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50%

Thursday, 18 Jun, 2026 Central Banks Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50% The divergence between a hold-all-year base case and a near-coin-flip December hike probability reflects the genuine uncertainty Warsh has introduced by removing forward guidance. Without a Fed-provid Central Banks CITIC Securities sees Fed on hold all year as Warsh faces political & inflation crosswinds CITIC's hold call pushes against the market's current lean toward an October hike, creating a divergence worth monitoring as the US-Iran MOU beds in and energy-driven inflation pressure eases. If the Learn more Central Banks PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7752 – Reuters estimate The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exch Central Banks Brazil central bank cuts rates but warns fiscal stimulus may blunt monetary policy The unanimous cut was fully priced and the BRL reaction will hinge on the tone around future easing rather than the decision itself. The explicit flagging of fiscal stimulus as an inflation upside ris Stocks SpaceX stock analysis after IPO "Houston, we have a problem...", SPCX rally loses upper-value acceptance SpaceX stock, ticker SPCX , is still far above its IPO price, but the latest chart structure is no longer a clean bullish conti Commodities Japan's 94% Middle East oil dependence leaves firms deeply exposed even as war winds down Japan's acute dependence on Middle East crude, with 94% of imports sourced from the region and 93% of those moving through Hormuz, means any delay in strait normalisation will weigh heavily on Asian r Commodities Brent could top $130 if strait never fully reopens, Goldman warns Goldman's base case of Brent at $80 by year-end and $75 in 2027 suggests limited further downside from current levels, with the bank arguing the market has largely priced the recovery already. The asy News New Zealand Q1 GDP 0.8% q/q (0.9% expected) and 1.5% y/y (1.1% expected) Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately. New Zealand GDP Q1 206: 1.5% y/y expected 1.1%, prior 1.3% 0.8% q/q expected 0.9%, prior 0.2% Background here: Economic and event Learn more Commodities Iran draws a red line on the deal. Attack Lebanon and its off. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei says Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments. Earlier: Iran-US MOU signed but Baghaei fires warning on missiles, u

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Always in trend: important economic events for 2026-06-18

Dear Client, Miss no important economic event with newsletters from RoboForex. The list of events for 2026-06-18 can be found below: 18.06.2026 00:00 Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q2) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 00:30 Interest Rate Decision Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 01:45 GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 01:45 GDP Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 01:45 GDP Annual Average (Q1) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 01:45 GDP (YoY) (Q1) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 02:50 Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks Importance: Low 18.06.2026 02:50 Foreign Bonds Buying Importance: Low 18.06.2026 04:30 Reserve Assets Total (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 06:30 Custom-Based Trade Data (USD) (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 06:30 Custom-Based Import Data (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 06:30 Custom-Based Export Data (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 07:30 Dutch Unemployment Rate (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 09:00 Unemployment Rate (Apr) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 09:00 Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Apr) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 09:00 Claimant Count Change (May) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 09:00 Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 09:00 Trade Balance (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 09:00 Average Earnings ex Bonus (Apr) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 10:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 10:00 Interest Rate Decision Importance: Low 18.06.2026 10:00 SECO Economic Forecasts Importance: Low 18.06.2026 10:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2) Importance: High 18.06.2026 10:30 Interest Rate Decision Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 10:30 SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 10:30 Loans (YoY) (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 10:30 Lending Facility Rate (Jun) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 10:30 Deposit Facility Rate (Jun) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 11:00 Interest Rate Decision Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 11:00 Interest Rate (Q2) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 11:00 Current Account n.s.a. (Apr) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 11:00 Current Account (Apr) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 11:20 M2 Money Supply (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 11:20 M3 Money Supply (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 11:30 SNB Press Conference Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 12:00 Construction Output (MoM) (Apr) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 13:00 Portuguese Current Account (Apr) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 13:00 German Buba Monthly Report Importance: Low 18.06.2026 13:10 ECB's Elderson Speaks Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 13:15 Interest Rate Decision Importance: Low 18.06.2026 14:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) Importance: High 18.06.2026 14:00 BoE MPC Meeting Minutes Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 14:00 BoE MPC vote unchanged (Jun) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 14:00 BoE MPC vote hike (Jun) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 14:00 BoE MPC vote cut (Jun) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 14:00 CBRT Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Importance: Low 18.06.2026 14:30 Net FX Reserves Importance: Low 18.06.2026 14:30 Gross FX Reserves Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:00 Private Spending (YoY) (Q1) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:00 Private Spending (QoQ) (Q1) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:00 Aggregate Demand (QoQ) (Q1) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:00 Aggregate Demand (YoY) (Q1) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:15 ECB's Lane Speaks Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 15:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) Importance: High 18.06.2026 15:30 Initial Jobless Claims Importance: High 18.06.2026 15:30 RMPI (MoM) (May) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 15:30 Philly Fed Employment (Jun) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 15:30 Continuing Jobless Claims Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 15:30 RMPI (YoY) (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:30 IPPI (YoY) (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:30 IPPI (MoM) (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:30 Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:30 Philly Fed New Orders (Jun) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:30 Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jun) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:30 Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jun) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 15:30 Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Importance: Low 18.06.2026 17:00 US Leading Index (MoM) (May) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 17:16 Interest Rate Decision Importance: Low 18.06.2026 17:30 Natural Gas Storage Importance: Low 18.06.2026 18:30 8-Week Bill Auction Importance: Low 18.06.2026 18:30 4-Week Bill Auction Importance: Low 18.06.2026 20:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 20:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 22:00 Trade Balance (May) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 23:00 TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Apr) Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 23:00 TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Apr) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 23:00 Overall Net Capital Flow (Apr) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 23:00 US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Apr) Importance: Low 18.06.2026 23:30 Fed's Balance Sheet Importance: Medium 18.06.2026 23:30 Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks Importance: Low Sincerely, RoboForex team Contact us | Members area Download the app and trade CFDs     Best Partner Programme 2024 Professional Trader Awards Best Copy Trading Broker 2024 Professional Trader Awards Best Introducing Broker Programme - LatAm 2024 GF Awards - Retail If you no longer wish to receive emails from us, please follow this link to manage newsletter subscriptions. 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