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Thursday, April 30, 2026

European Markets Wrap-Up: Italy April preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +2.6% y/y expected

Thursday, 30 Apr, 2026

News

Italy April preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +2.6% y/y expected

Prior +1.7% HICP +2.9% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +1.6% More to come..

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News

Eurozone April preliminary CPI +3.0% vs +2.9% y/y expected

Prior +2.6% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2 y/y expected Prior +2.3% More to come..

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News

Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% q/q expected

Prior +0.2% GDP Y/Y +0.8% vs +0.9% expected Prior +1.2% These lower than expected figures further complicate ECB's decision but points more towards a neutral stance with a slightly hawkish bias in cas

Central Banks

The ECB is stuck between a rock and a hard place

I don't envy being in the ECB's position right now. The central bank already had to pause on rate cuts during the summer last year as inflation pressures stopped easing, especially in Germany. A modes

Forex

Japan's top currency diplomat issues final warning before action in FX market

No comment on FX level In close contact with our US counterpart Closely coordinating with US based on our FX agreement in September last year This is my final warning before action The Japanese yen ex

News

Italy Q1 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs +0.1% q/q expected

Prior +0.3% It's a modest reading with the yearly estimate showing a 0.7% increase in GDP compared to the first quarter of last year. But with the energy price surge set to have a more profound impact

Forex

Japan's Katayama: We are getting closer to taking decisive step in FX market

Stronger verbal intervention sends the JPY higher. The 160.00 handle on USD/JPY is definitely the line in the sand for Japanese officials but we've seen time and time again that their interventions ar

News

Germany Q1 preliminary GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% q/q expected

Prior +0.2% That's a solid showing even as March data is likely weakened by the impact of the Middle East conflict. Relative to the same quarter a year ago, the quarterly performance here shows a 0.5%

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News

Germany April unemployment change 20k vs 4k expected

Prior 0k Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3%; revised to 6.4% The struggle continues as the jobless figure rose by 20,000 on the month. So, that brings the overall number of unemployed

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Asia Market Movers: New Zealand April business confidence in the hole at minus 10.6% vs. +32.5% in March

Thursday, 30 Apr, 2026

News

New Zealand April business confidence in the hole at minus 10.6% vs. +32.5% in March

ANZ NZ business survey, April 2026 Business Confidence is -10.6% prior +32.5% Activity outlook +19.5 prior +39.3 I'll have more to come on this separately

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Commodities

Japan March industrial output falls 0.5% as Hormuz closure hits chemicals and fuels

Japan's industrial production fell 0.5% in March, missing the +1.1% forecast, as Hormuz-linked disruptions cut chemical and fuel output. Manufacturers see a further decline in April before a 2.2% rebo

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Commodities

A desperate Trump pitches Maritime Freedom Construct coalition to reopen Strait of Hormuz

The Trump administration is seeking international partners for a "Maritime Freedom Construct" coalition to restore Hormuz navigation, a State Department cable shows, as peace talks stall and Trump sig

Central Banks

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8414 – Reuters estimate

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exch

News

Japan March Industrial production misses expectations while Retail Sales beat

Japan data, March 2026: Industrial Production (preliminary) -0.5% m/m expected +1.1%, prior -2.0% and +2.3% y/y prior +0.4% Manufacturers see April output -0.5% m.m (prior -2.6%) and May output +2.2%

Central Banks

Bank of England set to hold at 3.75% as Iran war forces stagflation reckoning

The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on Thursday in an 8-1 vote, with new forecasts set to show higher inflation and weaker growth as the MPC assesses the Iran war's economic fal

Central Banks

NZ makes RBNZ votes public as fin min Willis overhauls MPC transparency charter

New Zealand's Finance Minister has overhauled the RBNZ's MPC charter, making individual member votes public when consensus is not reached and requiring meeting records to attribute material difference

Central Banks

Preview: ECB expected to keep rates at 2% today. Lagarde tone on June takes centre stage

The ECB is expected to hold rates at 2% on Thursday. Markets price a 10% chance of a hike today but look to June for the first move. Lagarde's tone on inflation and the Middle East conflict will drive

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Central Banks

Brazil's cuts rate by 25bp to 14.50% but flags deanchored inflation and Middle East risks

Brazil's Copom unanimously cut the Selic 25bp to 14.50% but offered no forward guidance, warning that future moves depend on the depth and duration of the Middle East conflict and that inflation proje

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