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Wednesday, March 11, 2026

European Markets Wrap-Up: Oil prices creep back up after Washington fiasco, what's next?

Wednesday, 11 Mar, 2026

Commodities

Oil prices creep back up after Washington fiasco, what's next?

The roller coaster ride continues on the week, with oil prices now starting to nudge back higher today. There was much drama and a real mess yesterday amid conflicting headlines. As the US tries to pl

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News

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reactio

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Forex

The Japanese yen weakens further amid a lack of bullish drivers; USD/JPY eyes a breakout

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Monday after Trump told CBS that "the war could be over soon." Traders unwound some of their positions as expectations of a quick r

News

G7 energy ministers reaffirm support of using oil reserves

The statement said that G7 energy ministers supported, in principle, the implementation of proactive measures in order to address the current market situation. And among those measures, it includes th

News

What are the main events for today?

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the Spanish retail sales data which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be mu

Central Banks

ECB's Kazimir: Rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought

The ECB is still in good place We will be ready to act if needed There's no reason to act at the next meeting I have no reservations to hike without new forecasts Upside inflation risks clearly domina

News

Germany February final CPI +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y prelim

Prior +2.1% HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.1% The drop in the headline reading owes much to lower energy prices mostly. So when you take a look at core annual inflation instead, that is seen

Central Banks

ECB policymaker Villeroy says do not expect a rate hike at next week's meeting

We must remain calm amid Iran crisis The conflict has raised uncertainty Likely to see slightly higher inflation, less growth due to the conflict But inflation in France will remain low, don't see sta

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Forex Orders

FX option expiries for 11 March 10am New York cut

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. That keeps near key near-term levels, with the 200-hour moving average seen at 1

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Asia Market Movers: Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week

Wednesday, 11 Mar, 2026

Central Banks

Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week

Hauser's hawkish inflation warnings have pushed markets toward expecting a possible RBA rate hike as soon as the March meeting. RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a "g

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News

Weak yen and oil shock cloud Japan inflation outlook -- PPI recap

Japan's wholesale inflation cooled in February but rising oil prices from the Iran conflict threaten to push price pressures higher again. Summary: Japan's corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 2.0%

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Central Banks

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8917 (vs. estimate at 6.8824)

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come

News

Goldman Sachs February CPI preview signals gradual inflation slowdown, not everyone agrees

Goldman Sachs expects February CPI to show easing core inflation as autos and shelter moderate. Data due at 0830 US Eastern time on Wednesday, March 11, 2026. Summary: Goldman Sachs expects February c

Central Banks

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8824 – Reuters estimate

On Tuesday the USD/CNY reference rate was set at a 35 month low (ie a 35 month high for CNY). That could be surpassed today as the PBoC allows a stronger yuan again. --- The People's Bank of China is

Commodities

The IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after Hormuz disruption

The IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after the Strait of Hormuz disruption sent crude prices sharply higher. Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting. ps. G7 discussion on oil

News

Japanese wholesale prices +2.0% y/y in February (2.1% expected)

Japan PPI for February 2026, AKA corporate goods price index (CGPI), measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services: -0.1% m/m expected 0.2%, prior 0.2% 2.0% y/y expected

Central Banks

ICYMI: Debate grows over political influence on Bank of Japan policy

Questions over whether Prime Minister Takaichi sought to influence BOJ policy have renewed debate about political pressure on Japan's central bank. Reuters (may be gated) carried the info ICYMI. Summa

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Central Banks

ICYMI: RBA's Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate rise debate (March 17 live)

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned oil-driven inflation risks could intensify policy debate ahead of the next interest rate decision. Justin had his comments posted here yesterday: RBA policymaker Haus

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