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| Up 46.8% since ProPicks AI picked it in August. Is the run finished? |
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| On August 1, our Energy Elite strategy selected CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) for a rare combination of price momentum, attractive valuation, and strong growth. |
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| The stock is up +46.82% since then, including +21.6% in September alone. |
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| CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI) is an independent U.S. petroleum refiner and nitrogen fertilizer producer. Its Mid-Continent refineries leverage discounted Canadian heavy crude across 250,000 barrels per day of capacity. |
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| The bull case supports the rally. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.34 beat consensus by 183% as quarterly revenue reached $2.74 billion. Petroleum segment EBITDA surged to $106 million on 98% crude utilization, while fertilizer EBITDA jumped 60% to $107 million with plants running at 99% capacity. Free cash flow hit $264 million for the quarter, lifting total liquidity to $1.1 billion as crack spreads more than doubled year-over-year. |
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| But after the rally, the case against it is also concrete. At $52.13, CVI trades 14.3% above its Fair Value estimate of $44.69, against an analyst consensus Strong Sell and a $33.40 target. Trailing P/E sits at an extraordinary 76x with a 73 RSI flagging overbought conditions. Meanwhile, $216 million in RIN compliance costs cut crack-spread capture by 25%, RFS obligations ballooned to $408 million, and debt stands at $1.8 billion. |
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| CVR Energy is up +46.82% since August in our Energy Elite strategy |
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| What ProPicks AI identified here is a refiner catching a supply-driven cycle before the market repriced it, with a PEG ratio near 0.43 at the point of entry pointing to unusually cheap growth against that momentum. That mispricing has closed. |
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| WarrenAI's read on the stock today calls the run "more finished than not," with a pullback toward the $44–$49 range the higher-probability path from here. |
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| Which brings us to the real question: Will CVI stay in our strategies for October, or are the models rotating into a fresh set of mispriced targets? |
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| ProPicks AI reads balance sheets and catalysts—not sentiment. October’s brand-new stock picks drop this Thursday, and you don't want to be chasing old runs. |
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| Claim 55% off an InvestingPro subscription during our limited-time FLASH SALE and unlock October’s picks the second they go live. |
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| *Data correct to: 23.9.2026 |
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