European Markets Wrap-Up: GBPUSD rejects a major trendline as US dollar bids return amid renewed risk aversion

Thursday, 12 Mar, 2026 Forex GBPUSD rejects a major trendline as US dollar bids return amid renewed risk aversion FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board earlier this week as oil prices fell following G7 discussion about emergency oil reserves release. The move accelerated after Trump to Commodities IEA chief confirms release of 400 million barrels in strategic in oil reserves The move is aimed to stabilise markets Once again, it's not so much about the big figure as touted in the headline. As mentioned yesterday: "As mentioned before, it could still take weeks for this oil Learn more Commodities Gold fails to sustain the breakout as prospects for a quick end to the war fade FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold broke out of its range on Wednesday as sentiment improved after Trump said on Tuesday that "the war could be over soon." That prompted traders to scale back hawkish interest- News What are the main events for today? EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda. The focus remains on the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz where ships continue to be attacked. Oil prices rose back Forex Middle East energy disruption shifts EUR/USD risks to the downside - Danske Before the US-Iran conflict, EUR/USD took a run at the 1.2000 level as upside risks looked more likely to win out as we started the year. But in the last two weeks, the script has completely flipped a Forex Orders FX option expiries for 12 March 10am New York cut There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The closest one that could factor into play are the ones for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. That being said, th Commodities Oil prices continue to be the tail that is wagging the dog It's another day but it will be the same old story in markets as it has been since last week. Every inch of the broader market mood is fixated on the Middle East as the energy disruption continues to Commodities China has reportedly called for immediate ban on fuel exports for March The report says that the Chinese government has effectively banned refined fuel exports for the month of March "with immediate effect". That as Beijing has ordered refiners to stop such exports for th Learn more News investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Brent surge over $100 as Iran intensified attacks Container ship hit by projectile near UAE port of Jebel Ali Australia allows higher sulphur fuel imports to protect supply security Drone strikes hit Oman energy facility, vessels evacuate Mina Al Fah

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Asia Market Movers: BoJ’s Ueda warns weak yen could amplify inflation as oil prices rise

Thursday, 12 Mar, 2026 Central Banks BoJ's Ueda warns weak yen could amplify inflation as oil prices rise BoJ Governor Ueda warns currency weakness could intensify inflation risks as higher oil prices and a weaker yen threaten to fuel cost-push inflation in Japan. Summary: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ued Central Banks CBA expects RBA to hike rates in March and May as inflation risks rise Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates in March and May as rising energy prices and strong domestic data keep inflation risks elevated. Earlier: ANZ joins banks expecting March 17 RBA rate h Learn more Central Banks PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8959 (vs. estimate at 6.8853) The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 24.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations Central Banks ANZ joins banks expecting March 17 RBA rate hike as oil shock lifts inflation risks Expectations for an RBA rate hike on March 17 are strengthening as oil-driven inflation risks grow and major banks including ANZ join forecasts for tighter policy. Summary: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Stocks Oracle layoffs could reach 45000 as AI replace database, engineering roles. Job loss flood Summary: Oracle is reportedly preparing layoffs that could reach as many as 45,000 employees, above the confirmed 20,000–30,000 range. Much of the restructuring is tied to AI automation within Oracle Central Banks PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8853 – Reuters estimate The People's Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exch News UK housing market cools as RICS price gauge falls to -12 UK housing demand weakened in February as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices raised fears mortgage rates could remain elevated. Summary: The RICS house price balance fell to -12 in Februar Central Banks Australian inflation expectations surging higher still: 5.2% (vs. 5% prior) Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation for March 2025 rise to 5.2% from 5% in February. RBA looks locked and loaded: Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week Wes Learn more News Private credit fears grow as Morgan Stanley limits redemptions and JPMorgan cuts leverage Summary: Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding. The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8%

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