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| What are this week’s market risks or opportunities? |
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| In his first meeting this week, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50–3.75%. The hold was expected, but the tone caught markets off guard. |
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| Warsh scrapped forward guidance, called the Fed's projections "written in pencil," and let a hawkish dot plot speak: 9 of 18 officials now see a rate hike by end-2026, just one a cut. |
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| The reaction was fast: about $1.5 trillion wiped across stocks, metals and crypto in ten minutes, with no rate change at all. |
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| So the era of a Fed that tells you what's coming is over. |
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| That makes next week the first real test of where Warsh stands, and it comes down to one number: Core PCE on Thursday, June 25, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely. |
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Forecast: 0.2% month-over-month.
- 0.2% or lower → inflation's still cooling. The AI-capex trade keeps running.
- Hotter → yields climb, long-duration bets reprice fastest, with no rate cut to cushion the fall.
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| With the Fed no longer telegraphing its moves, Thursday's number is the clearest read markets get. |
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| Which trades should I consider? |
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| The AI capex cycle (spending on chips, data centers, and the tools behind them) is moving a lot of names right now. |
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| Here are four we're highlighting this week, all currently held by ProPicks AI. |
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Month-to-date:*
- Veeco (VECO): +31.4% — Mid-Cap Movers
- Marvell (MRVL): +31.9% — Tech Titans
- Onto (ONTO): +32.3% — Quality Compounders
- Axcelis (ACLS): +16.6% — Mid-Cap Movers
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| All four are high-beta, so they tend to move quickly once a print like Thursday's lands. Worth deciding your stance ahead of time rather than reacting after. |
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| The honest question after a run like this: is there still room? |
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| On Fair Value (our valuation model), not much. It sees downside on all four — Marvell −37.3%, Veeco −19.1%, Axcelis −17.8%, and even Onto −6.02%. The big move has already happened. |
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| Whether these names hold on to it now depends in large part to Thursday's number. |
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| Should I consider this trade? |
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| Axcelis (ACLS) stands out as the cheapest of the group at about 18x trailing earnings, while the rest run from 27x up to 45x. It's also the only one Wall Street doubts. BofA rates it Underperform. Revenue fell 17.6% last year, and it just missed on earnings. |
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| So why is it up? |
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| Because it's making the boldest move of the four: buying Veeco in an all-stock deal. The cheapest, most-doubted name is the one swinging hardest. Safe harbor if Thursday runs hot, or a value trap dressed up with a deal? |
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| Data correct to 17.06.2026 |
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