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Thursday, March 2, 2023

Fundamental: Seasonal Adjustment in the Wake of Big Shocks, Economic and Otherwise

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Alert Alert Mar 2, 2023, 4:22pm
 
Fundamental: Seasonal Adjustment in the Wake of Big Shocks, Economic and Otherwise
Consider the following three examples of seasonally adjusted vs. not seasonally adjusted data. {chart} Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, 000's, seasonally adjusted (blue), not seasonally adjusted (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER. The deep trough associated with the 2020 recession can cause ...
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