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Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Asia Market Movers: Reminder: Here are some of the widely-touted Trump trades

Reminder: Here are some of the widely-touted Trump trades

There have been some big moves so far on the assumption of a red sweep but history shows that we're only getting started. Here is the matrix from Deutsche Bank on the red sweep trades: Separately, her... 

tranche

New York Times 'Needle' puts Trump at 88% chance of winning presidency

Latest update from the New York Times model. Trump has performed strongly, taking (or ahead in) swing states he needed (they both needed!). Can Harris still win - well, yeah, that's what an 88% chance... 

It's looking more and more like a red sweep

It looks like Republicans will have free reign to administer the legislative agenda for at least the next two years. The bond market has been sniffing this out for awhile and is wilting today, with 30... 

Trump holds slender lead with over half the votes in for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Pennsylvania: Trump +3 (59% of votes in) Wisconsin: Trump +1.6 (55% of votes in) The other key one under the Rust Belt is Michigan but the state has so far only counted 25% of votes. It is also Trump... 

The peso signals Mexico isn't looking forward to four more years of Trump

One of the clearest Trump trades is selling the Mexican peso and it's a runaway move today, similar (though at a much smaller magnitude) to what happened in 2016 when Trump beat Clinton. That night, U... 

tranche

Latest Forex Orders

FX option expiries for 5 November 10am New York cut

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold . And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more b... 

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