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Thursday, July 17, 2025

European Markets Wrap-Up: Bundesbank's Nagel says dangerous to play with central bank independence

Bundesbank's Nagel says dangerous to play with central bank independence

Independence is the DNA of central banks It is dangerous to play with it He's referring to Trump's threats against Powell as we saw from yesterday. So far, the take among policymakers in the US and ab... 

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How have interest rates expectations changed after the US inflation data?

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 45 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 24 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 51 bps (77% probability of rate cut at... 

Citi now sees the ECB cutting policy rates in September and December next

The revised forecast in skipping a rate cut later this month fits with market expectations at least. However, two rate cuts for the remainder of the year is not quite. As things stand, traders are onl... 

US Treasury secretary Bessent to pay "courtesy visit" to Japan PM Ishiba tomorrow

Bessent will be arriving in Tokyo tomorrow and is also set to meet with Japan trade negotiator Akazawa. We'll see if this "courtesy visit" with Ishiba is part of that or perhaps it's a way to pass on... 

Eurozone June final CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim

Prior +1.9% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% No change to the initial estimates as this just helps to reaffirm the ECB pause mode through the summer.... 

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FX option expiries for 17 July 10am New York cut

There are a couple of to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold . It's never a dull day with Trump in charge but if you missed the headlines, you'd be thinking major currencies didn't do all... 

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