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Thursday, September 4, 2025

American Market Recap: US stocks find a bid -- now higher on the week

Thursday, 04 Sep, 2025

Stock market update

US stocks find a bid -- now higher on the week

The week started out in poor fashion for stocks and it's been a choppy ones but the bulls are winning again. Amazon is leading the way today with a 3.7% gain that's brought it within a fraction of a n

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Central Banks

Williams: Expects tariff impact to play out into the middle of next year

Bond market more focused on economic fundamentals right now Bond market is relatively calm right now Fed needs to keep economy on track and allow tariffs to pass through My base case is tariffs stay i

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Central Banks

Fed's Williams says he expects rates to come down gradually over time

It's bizarre that Trump is completely politicizing the Fed over the pace of rate cuts. I don't think there is anyone at the Fed who is significantly more dovish than Williams and they all see the same

News

US EIA weekly oil inventories +2415K vs -2031K expected

Prior was -2392K Distillate +1681K vs -598K exp Gasoline -3795K vs -1068K exp The gasoline number helps to balance it out a tad but this isn't a great report for crude. On the kneejerk though, there m

Central Banks

Miran says tightening US borders is 'deflationary'

It's not really surprising that Miran is following Trump's talking points in his Fed nomination but I would like to see the argument for how deporting low-wage workers is deflationary. I guess you can

Forex

USD/JPY recoups yesterday's decline

USD/JPY is at the best levels of the day, up 66 pis to 148.75. The climb is a continuation of the moves that followed today's data slate. The numbers weren't great but they were good enough to sooth n

Central Banks

Miran: No one in the Trump admin has asked me to lower rates

That sound believable. Miran is also saying that he doesn't plan to resign from the President's Council of Economic Advisors but rather take a leave because the term is only until January. In any case

News

ISM August services PMI 52.0 vs 51.0 expected

Prior was 50.1 Business activity 55.0 vs 53.0 expected Prior business activity 52.6 New orders 56.0 vs 50.3 prior Employment 46.5 vs 46.4 prior Prices 69.2 vs 69.9 prior The pickup in new orders is en

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News

US September S&P Global final services PMI 54.5 vs 55.4 prelim

Prelim was 55.4 Prior was 55.7 Composite 54.6 vs 55.1 prior The absolute number here is a solid one and suggests that the economy is ok at the moment but the declines in business optimism are forward

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