European Markets Wrap-Up: ECB's Centeno: Can't tolerate inflation below 2% for too long

Friday, 19 Sep, 2025 News ECB's Centeno: Can't tolerate inflation below 2% for too long 2028 inflation forecast likely to be below 2% Still see inflation risks to downside Centeno has been one of the most dovish members for a long time and he's not deviating from that stance here. When d Central Banks Morgan Stanley no longer expects BOE to cut rates any more for what's left of this year Before the decision yesterday, Morgan Stanley had noted before this that there was a "possibility of cuts in both November and December or neither". Adding that their base case was expecting "sequenti Learn more Forex USD/JPY turns flat on the day after Ueda press conference After the BOJ decision earlier today, the pair dribbled lower and fell to a low of 147.20 at the tail end of Asia trading. That was met by buyers who moved to defend a key near-term level on the chart News How have interest rates expectations changed after this week's events? Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 44 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 113 bps ECB: 4 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 10 bps BoE: 7 bps (94% pro Central Banks BOJ governor Ueda declines to comment on being "behind the curve" No comment on short-term moves in market Need to look at actual data to see how tariff-induced inflation in the US negatively affects Japan's exports Not yet at the point where higher tariffs are havi Stocks European indices kick start the session with marginal gains only Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX +0.3% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% Do keep an eye out on the mood in US futures though. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.15% an Technical Analysis Gold consolidates near all-time highs as traders switch their focus to the data Fundamental Overview Gold extended the gains into a new all-time high right before the FOMC decision but eventually gave back everything as the Fed didn't match the very dovish expectations priced in Central Banks BOJ governor Ueda: Board members did not agree to proposal by Takata, Tamura Underlying inflation is still below 2% but approaching that level Need to be mindful of downside risks to prices from tariffs We want to look at more data Want to scrutinise the data amid high uncerta Learn more News France September business confidence 96 vs 96 prior Services confidence 98 Prior 96 Industrial confidence 96 Prior 97

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