American Market Recap: Bank of England's Bailey says inflation would be at target if not for the war

Friday, 03 Jul, 2026 Central Banks Bank of England's Bailey says inflation would be at target if not for the war BOE seeks to hit inflation target without damaging output Market pricing puts the odds of a hike in November at roughly 50%. If oil stays down here the effects of the war should be unwound quickly so News The US consumer is "stressed" but spending on cats is "on fire" according to General Mills Cereal and packaged food giant General Mills reported earnings this week and the read from the was unambiguous: the consumer is stressed, staying stressed, and the company is planning around it rather Learn more Commodities Gold shines on the US holiday Gold rallied in Asia and has held its gains since in quiet holiday trading. It's up $53 to $4147 and looking to climb for the first week in five. The gain today came in a burst in Asia and topped out Central Banks How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 62 bps (82% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) Fed: 30 bps (83% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 24 bps (72% probability of no change at the n Forex USD/JPY consolidates at a key support after yesterday's suspected stealth intervention FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has weakened across the board yesterday following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest r News Japan wage hikes confirmed to have topped 5% for a third year running Japan's largest union group Rengo confirms that the final tally of the annual labour talk results showed that Japanese firms have agreed to raise pay by 5.01% on average this year. This figure is of c News UK June final services PMI 48.8 vs 48.7 prelim Prior 49.3 Final Composite PMI 49.3 vs 49.4 prelim Prior 49.7 Key findings : Activity falls to greatest extent for nearly three and a half years New orders decrease for fourth month in a row Input cos News Eurozone services contraction eases in June as cost pressures cool Services PMI 49.4 vs 48.9 prelim Prior 47.7 Composite PMI 50.0 vs 49.5 prelim Prior 48.5 Both the services and composite prints are 3-month highs respectively, reflecting a modest recovery in business Learn more News Germany June final services PMI 48.6 vs 46.8 prelim Prior 48.1 Final Composite PMI 49.5 vs 48.0 prelim Prior 48.8 Key findings : Business activity falls for third month running, but cost pressures ease substantially June sees further, albeit slightly s

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