|
| How did PBF Energy beat estimates by 571%? |
|
| When PBF Energy's (NYSE:PBF) Martinez refinery went down in 2024, the stock spent over a year in the low $20s. |
|
| PBF is an independent refiner operating six high-complexity refineries across the US with roughly one million barrels a day of processing capacity. |
|
| 14 months after the fire, Martinez was in its final stages of coming back online when PBF reported Q1 2026 results: adjusted EPS of $1.65 against a forecasted loss of $0.35, a 571% beat. |
|
| The beat leaned more on exceptional refining margins from Middle East supply disruptions and one-time items, an inventory adjustment and an insurance recovery, than on a fully restarted refinery. Martinez's full contribution still hasn't shown up in a complete quarter. |
|
| Our Energy Elite strategy added PBF on June 1 for exactly this setup, a refiner finishing a long operational disruption with earnings power the market hadn't priced in yet. |
|
| It has since: the stock is up 57.9% since being added, trading near its 52-week high. |
|
| PBF looks cheap on a forward basis. Analysts see $9.78 in FY26 EPS, up from $8.32, for a forward P/E of 6.6x, well below the sector's typical 12-18x. |
|
| That multiple doesn't last with EPS expected to fall to $5.19 in FY27 and $3.52 in FY28, pushing it to roughly 12x and 18x. The bargain belongs to one year, not the business at a normal run rate. |
|
| The stock trades at $64.33, near its $68.33 high and far above its $21.24 low, above the $53.62 average target, with RSI overbought. Every current rating is a Hold or a Sell — Evercore ISI, Mizuho, Freedom Broker, and TD Cowen at Hold, Morgan Stanley at Sell — no active Buy. |
|
 |
|
| Source: PBF Energy ProResearch Report |
|
| PBF Energy is up 57.9% since being added in June to our Energy Elite strategy. |
|
 |
|
| What ProPicks AI identified here is a bargain multiple built on one unfinished quarter. With PBF reporting earnings on July 30, the open question is how much room is left once the catalyst is no longer a surprise. |
|
|
|
| New picks for August will be released this Saturday. |
|
| Don’t miss this final chance to save 60% on all AI-picked stocks — like PBF — before our July Sale ends. |
|
|
|
|
| *Data correct to: 21.7.2026 |
|
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment