European Markets Wrap-Up: ECB policymaker Rehn tries to keep the door open for rate cuts

Friday, 19 Dec, 2025 Central Banks ECB policymaker Rehn tries to keep the door open for rate cuts Our next policy move is not automatically an interest rate hike Future decisions are to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis Inflation risks are now slightly tilted to the downside But not in favour Central Banks Interest rate expectations for the Fed remain the most dovish among major central banks Rate cuts by year-end (2026) Fed: 61 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 36 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end (2026) BoC: 22 Learn more Forex USD/JPY set to post biggest daily gain in a month, eyes on December highs It's all about the BOJ so far today and we're seeing some modest moves in reaction as the Japanese yen runs lower. That despite the fact that the central bank delivered a 25 bps rate hike to bring its Forex USDINR Technical Analysis: RBI's intervention paused the selloff. Key levels in focus now. KEY POINTS: USDINR continues to consolidate below a key resistance around the 90.40 level The RBI intervention paused the selloff in the Indian Rupee The main trend remains to the upside In the short- News What are the main events for today? EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, the main highlight was the UK Retail Sales report. The data came out negative disappointing expectations and weighing a bit on the pound. In the bigger pictu Central Banks BOJ governor Ueda says the possibility of further rate hikes will be data-dependent Lower risks to inflation and growth triggered conditions for a rate hike today Underlying inflation is running above the 0% mark So far, market players are not all too convinced. And pardon me for als News UK retail sales disappoint on expectations with another slump in November This follows a decline of 0.9% in retail sales volume for October, which was revised up from a 1.1% decline previously. The year-on-year estimate for November shows that UK retail sales are now 0.6% h Central Banks BOJ governor Ueda says rate hikes will continue if economy develops as per projections Japan's economy is showing moderate recovery, though weakness persists Loose monetary policy to sustain economic recovery Japan's real interest rates are likely to remain very low Uncertainties in US Learn more Central Banks BOJ wins the first joust against Takaichi; Ueda press conference up next Let's get this out of the way first and foremost. The rate hike today was very well anticipated and priced in by markets already. As such, there isn't all too much reaction with the Japanese yen even

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