European Markets Wrap-Up: How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?

Friday, 22 May, 2026 Central Banks How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 76 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 64 bps (88% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoE: 48 bps (83% probability of no change at the n Stock market update More analysts are turning bullish on US stocks after earnings season The latest bullish call comes from UBS Global Wealth Management, who revised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,900. The brokerage firm previously forecast the US benchmark index to close Learn more Forex AUD/USD is at risk of a big selloff amid weakening Australia's data, more hawkish Fed FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under a little bit of pressure yesterday following claims from Al-Arabiya that a US-Iran draft agreement has been reached. It was expected to be announced News German business sentiment sees unexpected bounce in May but only a marginal one Business climate index 84.9 vs 84.2 expected Prior 84.4; revised to 84.5 Current conditions 86.1 vs 85.1 expected Prior 85.4 Expectations 83.8 vs 83.5 expected Prior 83.3; revised to 83.5 German busin Forex USD/JPY continues to edge higher as yen bias stays bearish amid negative macro backdrop FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar came under a little bit of pressure yesterday following claims from Al-Arabiya that a US-Iran draft agreement has been reached. It was expected to be announced News France's business climate remains gloomy in May as services sector remains gloomy Business confidence 94 vs 94 expected Prior 94 Services confidence 93 Prior 94 Industrial confidence 102 Prior 100 The French business climate remains gloomy, with yet another drop in services confide News What are the main events for today? EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK retail sales report. The data missed expectations across the board but it didn't change much for the BoE, so the market reaction News UK retail sales slump in April as fallout from Middle East crisis weighs on activity Retail sales -1.3% vs -0.6% m/m expected Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6% Retail sales 0.0% vs +1.3% y/y expected Prior +1.7%; revised to +1.4% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.3% m/m expected P Learn more News German economy reaffirmed to grow by 0.3% in Q1 2026 Q1 GDP +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelim Prior +0.3% The estimate here is very much old news as the focus turns to how the German economy is going to navigate the second and third quarters instead. That amid

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