|
Our AI exited Sandisk after +189%.
It then ran another 176%. Is it a miss? |
|
| The whole AI-and-memory chip complex is in full-blown mania mode. |
|
| A flash memory supply shortage paired with surging demand from AI data centers has pushed prices sharply higher in recent quarters, and Micron, AMD, Teradyne, and Credo have all more than tripled over the past twelve months. |
|
| Even with valuations stretched and fundamentals deteriorating, the charts in this sector keep going up and to the right. |
|
 |
|
| One of the stocks right at the center of that mania, Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), was in our Tech Titans portfolio from November to February. |
|
| We rotated it out with an impressive +189% gain after three months, and since the rotation it has run 176% more. |
|
| So it's a win, and on the way out it's also a partial miss. Did our models get it wrong? |
|
|
|
| Look at both calls side by side. |
|
November 2025, our AI picked it using the following rationales:
- The AI NAND chip market was projected to hit $29B by 2029, Sandisk's revenue was up 10.4%, and EBITDA had grown 362%.
- Mizuho doubled its price target to $112 and Morgan Stanley named it a Top Pick.
|
February 2026, this is what the AI model flagged for why it was removed:
- The P/E had reached 144.5x, price-to-book 8.3x, and return on assets sat at negative 7.6%.
- The stock had run +1,500% in a year on supply-driven pricing rather than demand growth, and while the Q2 earnings beat of 78% was real, no model could reasonably project that pace forward.
|
| Both reads of the data were defensible. The market then did what it sometimes does and kept going anyway. |
|
 |
|
| Source: Investing.com’s Sandisk Pro Research |
|
| WarrenAI, Investing.com's AI analyst, looked at the Sandisk rotation rationale for ProPicks AI and said it plainly: "Your rationale wasn't wrong, just outpaced by a once-in-a-decade mania." |
|
| ProPicks AI is built to narrow the field and increase the percentage of wins using institutional-grade models to which most investors have historically never had access. |
|
| Every month it runs criteria like quality of earnings, valuation, balance-sheet strength, and risk-adjusted return across every stock in the market. |
|
| The output is 88 different global strategies, each with its own updated stock list curated around a different investment thesis or market. |
|
| New names are added each month, and existing names are either held or rotated out — not as a sell signal, but to make room for stocks that better match the strategy's criteria. |
|
| Tech Titans surfaced Sandisk. It holds 20 stocks at any given time. Your research goes into those 20 instead of sifting through thousands and your judgment goes where it actually matters. |
|
| The hard part of doing this on your own isn’t just the complex mathematical models. It’s running the same process every month without chasing the latest story or deciding that this time is different. |
|
| That's the same consistency behind Tech Titans returning 196% since launching in November 2023, roughly three times the S&P 500 over the same period. |
|
|
|
| New picks for June will be released this Monday. Is the next Sandisk among them? |
|
|
|
|
| *Data correct to 27-05-2026 |
|
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment