Asia Market Movers | CBA tips RBA rate hike tomorrow but warns Iran war makes it a close call. Split RBA board

Monday, 04 May, 2026 Central Banks CBA tips RBA rate hike tomorrow but warns Iran war makes it a close call. Split RBA board Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp to 4.35% in May 5, but warns the decision is line ball given Iran war inflation pressures and softening consumer sentiment. Summary: Commonwealth Forex Barclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention Japan likely spent up to $35bn intervening to support the yen, but Barclays warns depreciation pressure will persist over the medium term as Iran war energy costs weigh. Summary: The dollar had its la Learn more Commodities UKMTO says a tanker has reported being hit by unknown projectiles, Strait of Hormuz UKMTO says it has received a report of an incident 78nm north of UAE’s Fujairah says a tanker has reported being hit by unknown projectiles, all crew are reported safe Commodities Pentagon puts full military weight behind Project Freedom (Hormuz freedom) from May 4 US CENTCOM says military support for Project Freedom begins May 4, deploying guided-missile destroyers, 100-plus aircraft, unmanned platforms and 15,000 service members to the Strait of Hormuz. Summar Commodities Iran draws red line (ceasefire breach) on Hormuz as US ship coordination plan takes shape Iran's parliament security chief has rejected Trump's Project Freedom plan for the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any US interference in the waterway would constitute a ceasefire violation. Summary: E Central Banks Fed's Kashkari refuses to rule out rate hikes as Iran conflict stokes inflation Fed's Kashkari says the Iran war raises inflation risks and may force rate hikes, adding the Fed cannot signal cuts are coming while the Hormuz strait remains closed. Summary: Minneapolis Fed Presiden Commodities WSJ says Trump plan to guide ships through Hormuz doesn’t involve U.S. Navy escorts President Trump announced on Sunday that the United States would begin coordinating the movement of commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, launching an initiative he called Project Freedom an Commodities Oil down, equities up on Trump's Hormuz plan just announced. Leaves Iran all at sea. This impacting opening prices in futures: Trump: US Navy will make effort to free up ships in Hormuz beginning Monday Mid East time Trump launches Project Freedom to escort ships out of Hormuz. Leaves Learn more Cryptocurrency Trump launches Project Freedom to escort ships out of Hormuz. Leaves Iran stranded. Trump says the US will begin escorting guiding neutral ships out of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday under an operation called Project Freedom, describing the move as a humanitarian gesture. It leaves I

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