Asia Market Movers: May meeting, RBA set for third straight hike as Hormuz closure drives inflation surge

Friday, 01 May, 2026 Central Banks May meeting, RBA set for third straight hike as Hormuz closure drives inflation surge Reuters poll: RBA to hike 25bps to 4.35% on May 5, say 30 of 33 economists. Over a third now see rates at 4.60%+ by year-end vs none in March. Strait of Hormuz closure keeps oil above $100; CPI at 4.1 News Japan manufacturing PMI hits 4-year high but Middle East stockpiling masks fragile demand Japan April manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 51.6 in March, best since January 2022. Output fastest since Feb 2014 but driven by stockpiling. Supply delays worst in 15 years. Input costs at 3.5-year high. Bu Learn more Central Banks Japan head intervention official won't comment on FX or oil futures intervention Japan's senior currency official Atsushi Mimura refused to confirm or deny reports of yen intervention after the currency breached 160 per dollar, as the BoJ's cautious stance, $120 oil and thin Golde Central Banks Tokyo CPI misses forecast sharply, giving BoJ room to hold despite June hike signals This is a yen-negative, JGB-positive print in the near term. The magnitude of the miss on core-core, coming in at 1.9% against a 2.3% expectation and prior, is significant enough to give the BoJ genui Commodities Gold could nearly double, $8K, as emerging market central banks ditch the USD for bullion The $8,000 price target is conceptual rather than a formal forecast, but the structural argument underpinning it is difficult to dismiss. Central bank buying has been the dominant driver of gold deman Central Banks Japan: Tokyo area April CPI headline 1.5% y/y (expected 1.7%, prior 1.4%) Tokyo CPI, April 2026 is not going to rush the BoJ into rate hikes! Headline is 1.5% y/y expected 1.6%, prior 1.4% Core CPI (ex Food) 1.5% y/y, slowest since March 2022 expected 1.8%, prior1.7% Core-c News Australian factory input costs hit four-year high as Middle East supply disruption bites Australia April manufacturing PMI 51.3 vs 49.8 in March, but headline flatters. Input costs fastest in 4 years, supply delays worst since July 2022. Output, new orders and employment all fell. Middle Stock market update S&P 500 considers fast-track entry rules as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic eye IPOs S&P Dow Jones Indices launches review of megacap eligibility rules, potentially halving the listing period to 6 months and waiving profitability requirements. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic among po Learn more News NZ consumer confidence hits three-year low as Middle East oil shock bites ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence fell 11pts to 80.3 in April, a three-year low, down 20pts in two months. Inflation expectations jump to 6.6%. Personal finances weakest since mid-2008. Retail out

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