Asia Market Movers: Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50%

Thursday, 18 Jun, 2026 Central Banks Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50% The divergence between a hold-all-year base case and a near-coin-flip December hike probability reflects the genuine uncertainty Warsh has introduced by removing forward guidance. Without a Fed-provid Central Banks CITIC Securities sees Fed on hold all year as Warsh faces political & inflation crosswinds CITIC's hold call pushes against the market's current lean toward an October hike, creating a divergence worth monitoring as the US-Iran MOU beds in and energy-driven inflation pressure eases. If the Learn more Central Banks PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7752 – Reuters estimate The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exch Central Banks Brazil central bank cuts rates but warns fiscal stimulus may blunt monetary policy The unanimous cut was fully priced and the BRL reaction will hinge on the tone around future easing rather than the decision itself. The explicit flagging of fiscal stimulus as an inflation upside ris Stocks SpaceX stock analysis after IPO "Houston, we have a problem...", SPCX rally loses upper-value acceptance SpaceX stock, ticker SPCX , is still far above its IPO price, but the latest chart structure is no longer a clean bullish conti Commodities Japan's 94% Middle East oil dependence leaves firms deeply exposed even as war winds down Japan's acute dependence on Middle East crude, with 94% of imports sourced from the region and 93% of those moving through Hormuz, means any delay in strait normalisation will weigh heavily on Asian r Commodities Brent could top $130 if strait never fully reopens, Goldman warns Goldman's base case of Brent at $80 by year-end and $75 in 2027 suggests limited further downside from current levels, with the bank arguing the market has largely priced the recovery already. The asy News New Zealand Q1 GDP 0.8% q/q (0.9% expected) and 1.5% y/y (1.1% expected) Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately. New Zealand GDP Q1 206: 1.5% y/y expected 1.1%, prior 1.3% 0.8% q/q expected 0.9%, prior 0.2% Background here: Economic and event Learn more Commodities Iran draws a red line on the deal. Attack Lebanon and its off. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei says Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments. Earlier: Iran-US MOU signed but Baghaei fires warning on missiles, u

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