Asia Market Movers: Yuan - Chinese firms locking in exchange rates ahead of record $70bn dividend season

Wednesday, 29 Apr, 2026 Forex Yuan - Chinese firms locking in exchange rates ahead of record $70bn dividend season Analysts warn the yuan faces earlier-than-usual seasonal weakness as Chinese firms hedge nearly $70bln in dividends, with June's $24.1bln peak a record. (pro tip - Much hedging is likely already done) Central Banks PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8347 – Reuters estimate The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exch Learn more Commodities Bessent warns Kharg Island nearing capacity as US tightens Iran oil squeeze US Treasury Secretary Bessent says Kharg Island is nearing storage capacity, costing Iran around $170mn per day in lost revenue and risking permanent damage to its oil infrastructure. Summary: Treasur Commodities UAE exit from OPEC raises fears Kazakhstan and Iraq could be next to leave Dow Jones/Market Watch cite analysts who say Kazakhstan and possibly Iraq could follow the UAE out of OPEC, though Baghdad has denied any plans to leave. Analysts warn a weaker OPEC will struggle to s Central Banks NIESR cuts UK growth forecast, warns Iran war will keep inflation above target until 2028 NIESR cuts UK 2026 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 1.4%, sees inflation peaking above 4% in 2027 and warns of recession risk if the Iran war worsens. BoE seen hiking once to 4% in July. Summary: NIESR, the Central Banks Chile holds rates but Iran war oil risk echoes across global central banks The decision itself is unlikely to move markets, with the hold unanimous and widely expected. The significance lies in the language. Chile's explicit warning that the Middle East conflict is evolving Central Banks "The Bank of Japan can't save the yen" That headline, "BoJ can't save the yen", is a cracker from ING, straight to the point. ING warns the BoJ cannot save the yen, sees USD/JPY challenging the 2024 high of 162 and flags an outside risk of Central Banks Australia inflation forecasts point to RBA rate rise as Iran war fuels price pressures CBA sees Australian March CPI at 4.6%yr, trimmed mean at 3.5%yr, and calls for a 25bp RBA hike in May. Westpac warns the Iran energy shock will broaden through H2 2026. Summary: CBA forecasts headline Learn more Commodities Private survey inventory shows a huge headline crude oil draw vs. build expected Via oiprice.com: Expectations I had seen: headline crude oil +0.3mn barrels distillates --2.3mn bbls gasolina -2.1mn bbls This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum

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