European Markets Wrap-Up: How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?

Friday, 17 Apr, 2026 Central Banks How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 10 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 75 bps (69% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 54 bps (79% probability Forex Japan looks to be moving closer towards actual intervention to support the yen - MUFG Even as the dollar has had its troubles in the past two weeks, USD/JPY continues to stay underpinned with the yen currency itself also unable to get off the floor. As the US-Iran conflict drags on and Learn more Commodities Gold struggles to gain steam amid US-Iran optimism as neutral Fed caps momentum FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The bullish momentum in gold waned recently despite lots of tailwinds like lower real yields, looser financial conditions and lower US dollar. It’s certainly not been the same sin News What are the main event for today? EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian and Eurozone trade balances which are not going to change anything Forex Orders FX option expiries for 17 April 10am New York cut There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As things stand, trading sentiment is riding heavily on US-Iran developments. And for now, broader markets ar Education Trader Tyler White Calls Fed’s March Hold a “Dead End” as Stagflation Fears Grip Markets The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% on March 18 by an 11–1 vote. The decision was expected, but the message shook Wall Street: the Dow plunged more than 750 points after Cha News IEA chief Birol says release of more emergency oil reserves is under consideration On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, "we are not there yet" However, it is definitely under consideration We should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some time If Strait of Hor News investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Subdued trade heading into another nervy weekend China signals loose policy, boosts fiscal and tech investment push ICYMI: IEA warns Europe may have ~6 weeks of jet fuel India ICYMI: RBI FX intervention intensifies, curbs refiners’ dollar buying NZ Learn more Central Banks China signals loose policy, boosts fiscal and tech investment push China signalled continued policy support, with the PBOC maintaining a loose stance and officials accelerating fiscal spending and investment in tech and energy to support growth amid global risks. Sum

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