| | | | | The Brief | Mar 14, 2026 | | | | 3 quick answers that help you find trades others can't | | | | | | | | | Check out this newsletter we're testing and let us know what you think at the bottom | | | | | | | | | What are this week's market risks or opportunities? | | | | | | A 99% chance of no rate cut sounds like a non-event. It isn't. With rates on hold, the market's entire focus shifts to what Powell says about the ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop. Right now, his words carry more weight than his actions. | | | | Oil is up sharply year-to-date, increasing the risk of sticky inflation and the stagflation scenario the Fed most wants to avoid. The dollar is rebounding from multi-year lows against major currencies — a significant reversal that tightens global financial conditions and puts pressure on emerging markets. | | | | Equities are also under pressure, with growth stocks taking the worst of it. Any hawkish signal from Powell on inflation or growth could extend those moves fast. | | | | | | | | | | | Which trades should I consider? | | | | | | The hardest part of a tech selloff isn't the losses. It's not knowing if you're buying too soon, or into something that won't recover. | | | | AI names across the board — semiconductors, infrastructure, software — are now trading at steep discounts after months of selling pressure. Some are showing 40%+ upside to fair value. That's not a blip. It reflects a sector pricing in both macro fear and AI disruption risk at the same time. | | | | The contrarian case is real. Breaking-tech names don't stay at these discounts for long once sentiment shifts. The question is whether recovery conditions are forming — or whether we're still in the middle of the reset. | | | | | | | | | | | Should I consider this trade? | | | | | | If you're looking at beaten-down tech names, one number is worth watching first: the DXY, the U.S. Dollar Index. | | | | Right now the DXY isn't just a currency story, it's a rate expectations story. A rising dollar signals that markets expect rates to stay higher for longer, which is directly bearish for equities. A falling DXY would signal the opposite: easing rate expectations, looser financial conditions, and a more favorable environment for growth stocks. | | | | The dollar recently rebounded from multi-year lows, meaning conditions have already shifted once. Watch whether that rebound continues or stalls. If the DXY starts rolling lower, it's not just a currency move. It's the market telling you the rate outlook is softening — and that's when the tech dip-buying thesis gets real support. | | | | | | | | | | | Data correct to 12.03.2026 | | | | How would you rate this email? | | | | | | |  | | | | | | | © 2007-2026 Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved. | | | | | | | | To ensure proper delivery and quick loading of images, please add newsletter@investingmail.com to your safe sender list. | | | | Disclaimer:
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