European Markets Wrap-Up: How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?

Friday, 13 Mar, 2026 Central Banks How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 18 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBA: 74 bps (80% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting) RBNZ: 60 bps (95% pro Forex Why the US dollar is skyrocketing if rate hike bets increase for other central banks? The US dollar started the week on a negative note as the record jump in oil prices got unwound on G7 discussions about emergency oil reserves release and then on Trump's comment to CBS suggesting that Learn more News Spain February final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.3% HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prior Spain HICP Y/Y No changes to the preliminary estimates here. As mentioned for the French CPI , the data hasn't News France February final CPI +0.9% vs +1.0% y/y prelim Prior +0.3% HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim Prior +0.4% The HICP is the more important measure as that's what the ECB targets. The final figure matches the preliminary estimate, so there's nothing to s News UK January monthly GDP +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.1% GDP +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +0.7% The more detailed breakdown as per the following: Services +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Industrial output -0.1% vs Forex Orders FX option expiries for 13 March 10am New York cut EUR/USD 1.1700 (EUR 2.89 bn) 1.1600 (EUR 1.00 bn) 1.1500 (EUR 866.36 mn) 1.1400 (EUR 580.00 mn) USD/JPY 160.00 (US$ 464.89 mn) 159.00 (US$ 495.28 mn) 158.50 (US$ 406.68 mn) GBP/USD 1.3450 (GBP 299.62 News What are the main events for today? EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is the monthly UK GDP report. The consensus sees a 0.2% expansion in January. The data isn't going to change anything for the BoE or the ma News Japan Akazawa: Japan will make utmost efforts in securing alternative sources of crude oil Japan trade minister Akazawa: Will continue to discuss Japan's allocation and timing of IEA-led coordinated oil reserves release Japanese government, together with private sector operators, will make Learn more News investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Russia gets some oil sanctions relief from Trump Japan warns on oil price impact, signals FX action as USD/JPY nears 160 ICYMI - Tesla wins UK licence to supply electricity to households US, EU and Japan advance critical minerals trade deal with pri

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