European Markets Wrap-Up: How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?

Friday, 27 Mar, 2026 Central Banks How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Rate hikes by year-end ECB: 85 bps (71% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoE: 81 bps (84% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoC: 76 bps (77% probability of no change at the ne Central Banks BOJ would hike rates in April "if you think about it normally", says former governor Long time no see, Mr. Kuroda. He spokes to the Asahi newspaper in an interview and shared some of his thoughts on BOJ policy setting at the moment. The BOJ would raise the policy rate in April if you Learn more Stocks US futures pare gains to fall flat on the day now S&P 500 futures were up by around 0.7% earlier in the day on hopes of "peace" as US president Trump extended the cooling period on strikes against Iranian energy facilities for another 10 days. Th Commodities Gold prices remain under pressure amid risk of a ground invasion over the weekend FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is slowly erasing the gains as traders are getting increasingly worried of the risk of an escalation over the weekend. Trump has been jawboning the markets throughout the ent Central Banks ECB policymaker Patsalides says no rush to raise interest rates I would not rush into any decision, prefer to be more cautious Still need to assess whether this ​should be looked through or whether we should be making a rate decision We don't have sufficient infor News Spain March preliminary CPI +3.3% vs +3.7% y/y expected Prior +2.3% HICP +3.3% vs +3.9% y/y expected Prior +2.5% This is the first indication that higher energy prices are starting to see an impact. The monthly inflation estimate shows a 1.0% increase, whi News What are the main events for today? EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight will be Spain's CPI data, as it's the first major Eurozone economy to release its March inflation figures. The forecast isn't great as head News UK February retail sales -0.4% vs -0.7% m/m expected Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0% Retail sales +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y expected Prior +4.5%; revised to +4.8% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.8% m/m expected Prior +2.0%; revised to +2.2% Retail sale Learn more Central Banks BOJ re-estimates Japan's estimated natural rate of interest after review Using latest data, the estimate of the natural rate of interest is around -0.9% to +0.5% That estimate is as of Q3 2025 BOJ latest estimation is based on six models, including time-series and structur

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