Asia Market Movers: Fed faces new inflation shock as Middle East war cuts rate-cut odds this year to 47%

Tuesday, 17 Mar, 2026 Central Banks Fed faces new inflation shock as Middle East war cuts rate-cut odds this year to 47% Earlier: Morgan Stanley sees Fed cuts starting June, warns oil at $125–$150 raises recession risk --- A new energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict is complicating the Federal Reserve's path t Central Banks Japan officials signal vigilance on yields, fiscal policy and FX as yen weakness persists Japanese officials deliver coordinated policy remarks as markets watch for signs of support amid yen weakness. Summary: Japan's Finance Minister Katayama and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda issued a series of Learn more Central Banks PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8961 (vs. estimate at 6.8874) The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 51bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations Central Banks Morgan Stanley sees Fed cuts starting June, warns oil at $125–$150 raises recession risk Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in June but warns a surge in oil prices could lift U.S. recession risk. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet March 17 a Central Banks BOJ's Ueda says inflation rising toward 2% target ahead of March 18 &19 meeting BOJ Governor Ueda says inflation is gradually moving toward target ahead of the March 19 policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that underlying inflation is gradually accele News Singapore February exports rise 4.0% y/y, missing forecasts of 5.5% Singapore's February exports rose 4.0% y/y, missing expectations as electronics gains were partly offset by weaker non-electronics shipments. Summary: Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose Central Banks PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8874 – Reuters estimate The People's Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exch Central Banks Heads for Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to speak today at 0020 GMT / 2020 US Eastern time The BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.75% at its March 18/19 meeting as markets watch for signals on future tightening and bond purchases. Earlier: CBA says rising oil prices from Iran war could weak Learn more Forex CBA says rising oil prices from Iran war could weaken yen via trade balance Rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict may pressure the yen by worsening Japan's trade balance, CBA says. Summary: Analysts say higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict could pressure the

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