Asia Market Movers: Three of Australias four biggest banks are forecasting an RBA 25bp rate hike on February 3

Wednesday, 28 Jan, 2026 Central Banks Three of Australias four biggest banks are forecasting an RBA 25bp rate hike on February 3 Major bank forecasts are converging on a February RBA rate hike as inflation surprises force markets to reassess policy risks. Summary: Three of four major banks now expect an RBA hike in February NAB Central Banks PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9755 (vs. estimate at 6.9231) The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." The rate set under 7 toda Learn more Central Banks Australian CPI upside surprise boosts case for February 25bp RBA rate hike Australia's December CPI reinforces the case for an RBA rate hike as underlying inflation re-accelerates and services pressures intensify. Summary: Australian CPI surprised higher across headline and Forex AUD/USD rose to highest since February 2023 after stronger than expected inflation data This is just a quick update, I'll be back with more to come on this separately. Data here: Australian Trimmed Mean CPI quarterly 3.8% y/y (expected 3.6) The other readings mainly also stronger than ex News Australian Trimmed Mean CPI quarterly 3.8% y/y (expected 3.6) This is just a data post, I'll be back with detail and analysis separately. In brief, nearly all the readings are higher than expected. Its increasingly looking like a February 3rd rate hike from the Central Banks PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9231 – Reuters estimate The People's Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exch Central Banks BoJ December minutes signal gradual normalisation as inflation dynamics strengthen Summary: Members saw wage gains and pass-through supporting a durable wage–price cycle Real rates still negative; credit growth and easy conditions viewed as increasingly stimulative Neutral rate high Central Banks Bank of England's Bailey warns against complacency as financial risks evolve The Bank of England Governor Bailey writes that stronger banks are only part of the stability story as risks increasingly migrate beyond the traditional financial system. Summary: Bailey links past cr Learn more Commodities Trump vows fast signature for year-round E15 gasoline bill Trump's promise to quickly sign a year-round E15 bill puts biofuels back in focus as Congress struggles to deliver a permanent fix. Summary: Trump signals fast sign-off for year-round E15 gasoline leg

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