Asia Market Movers: El-Erian flags private credit ‘canary in the coal mine’ as fund freezes redemptions

Friday, 20 Feb, 2026 Stock market update El-Erian flags private credit 'canary in the coal mine' as fund freezes redemptions Blue Owl permanently restricted withdrawals from its $1.6bn private-debt fund, selling $1.4bn of loans at 99.7% of par and planning a 30% NAV distribution in Q1. El-Erian questioned whether it's an ea Forex USD gains on strong US data unlikely to last; policy uncertainty, political risks to cap MUFG says recent dollar gains driven by stronger U.S. data and cautious Fed minutes are unlikely to last. Political uncertainty and concerns about Fed independence under President Trump may keep inves Learn more Stock market update Supreme Court tariff ruling nears; JPM maps S&P 500 swings across four scenarios A Supreme Court decision on key Trump tariffs is expected in the current opinion window (with Feb 20 highlighted), and JPMorgan's trading desk outlines sharply different equity outcomes depending on w News Japan flash PMIs rise in February; composite hits 53.8, exports surge Japan's February flash PMIs strengthened across the board, with composite output rising to 53.8 and manufacturing gaining momentum. Export demand surged, backlogs hit record highs and price pressures News Japan inflation slows to 1.5% in January, core measures ease. What will the BoJ think? Japan inflation cools sharply in January, easing near-term pressure on the BoJ. Summary: Headline CPI y/y: 1.5% (exp. 1.6%, prev. 2.1%) — lowest since March 2022. Core CPI (ex fresh food) y/y: 2.0% (e News Japan January 2026 Core CPI 2.0%, slowest since Jan 2024 (vs. 2.0% expected & 2.4% prior) This is just a post with the data. I'll have more, analysis and implications posted separately. Note that the 1.5% overall pace is below 2% for the first time since March 2022. The latest on the BoJ: Commodities Iran warns of decisive response if attacked as Trump weighs strike option Iran signals readiness to retaliate if attacked as Trump weighs military options over nuclear dispute. Summary: Iran told UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres it does not seek war but will not tolera Central Banks Fed's Daly says policy 'in a good place' as inflation cools & AI productivity impact looms Daly signals steady Fed stance, sees inflation easing and AI shaping the next phase of policy debate. Summary: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says policy is "in a good place" after 75bps of rat Learn more News Australia flash PMIs cool in February: composite 52.0 vs 55.7 as price pressures intensify Australia's February flash PMIs cooled across the board, signalling slower growth but firmer inflation pressures. Summary: All three S&P Global Australia flash PMIs fell from January, showing a cl

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