Asia Market Movers: RBNZ’s Silk: easing cycle over, but weak demand and sticky inflation pose two-way risks

Thursday, 19 Feb, 2026 Central Banks RBNZ's Silk: easing cycle over, but weak demand and sticky inflation pose two-way risks RBNZ sees the cutting cycle as done, but weak consumption and sticky inflation keep risks two-sided. Summary: RBNZ's Silk says the central scenario is the easing cycle is over, with risks both ways Do Central Banks What the Fed didn't say: January minutes omit the date inflation returns to 2% The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes quietly remove December's "2% in 2028" timing, underscoring uncertainty. Summary: January minutes drop the explicit "2% by 2028" timing that ap Learn more Central Banks Australia unemployment total falls for fourth straight month. RBA March rate hike prospect A steady 4.1% jobless rate and another fall in total unemployment should keep rate hike risk priced, supporting AUD and holding front-end yields firm. It doesn't force a March move, but it keeps the R News Australian January jobs data, Unemployment rate 4.1% (expected 4.2%, prior 4.1% I posted a preview of the jobs data here: Australia's January labour force data due today - preview Posting the data now, and I'll have more to come on separately, analysis and implications etc. Added Central Banks FOMC minutes showed Powell to remain as Chair for all of 2026. Gridlock, here's why. The FOMC minutes stated that Jerome Powell was selected to serve as Chair for 2026, with the appointment lasting until a successor is formally chosen. In practical terms, that means Powell would conti News Two-thirds of Japanese firms concerned about Takaichi fiscal discipline Japanese firms remain wary of fiscal discipline under Takaichi, even as concerns over China tensions ease. Summary: Two-thirds of Japanese firms express concern about PM Takaichi's fiscal discipline M Forex JP Morgan raise their forecasts for AUD, NZD and for USD/JPY (EUR/USD unchanged) Summary: JPMorgan says renewed FX hedging by foreign investors could add fresh pressure on the US dollar Stronger non-US currencies are increasing incentives to hedge US equity exposure Fed rate hikes News Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, February 19, 2026 - Australian jobs data The Aussie jobs data (preview here ) is the focus of the data calendar here today. Note that while Singapore is back from holiday today mainland China and Hong Kong are still out. Liquididity in marke Learn more Commodities Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw This is a day later than normal this week due to the US holiday on Monday. --- This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It's a survey of oil stor

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